On Monday, September 22, 2025, Adani Power vaulted more than 20% in a single session, climbing to Rs 170.15 and setting a fresh adjusted 52‑week high. The move came as the shares began trading ex‑split after the company implemented a 1‑for‑5 stock split, effectively multiplying the number of shares while keeping the overall market value unchanged. Investors cheered not only the split, but also a string of developments that together erased much of the regulatory cloud that has hung over the Adani conglomerate since early 2023.
Catalysts that drove the rally
Five distinct factors converged to push the stock upward, each reinforcing the other and creating a feedback loop of confidence.
- 1. The 1‑for‑5 stock split. By cutting the price per share and increasing float, the split aimed to widen retail participation and improve liquidity. For a company whose shares had previously hovered in the high‑price range, the move opened the door for smaller investors who were previously priced out.
- 2. SEBI’s clean chit. After a 32‑month investigation sparked by a January 2023 Hindenburg Research report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India found no evidence of market manipulation or related‑party misuse. The regulator’s clearance removed a major overhang that had depressed valuations across the Adani group.
- 3. Morgan Stanley’s overweight rating. The global investment bank began coverage with a price target of Rs 818, citing a near‑30% upside potential. The firm highlighted the company’s extensive coal‑based capacity, strong earnings visibility under India’s SHAKTI policy, and the security offered by long‑term power purchase agreements (PPAs).
- 4. Aggressive expansion roadmap. Adani Power disclosed plans to boost its operating capacity from 18.15 GW to 41.9 GW by FY 32, an investment of roughly $22‑27 billion. The pipeline includes several under‑construction thermal and renewable projects that could reshape the Indian power mix.
- 5. New order wins. A recent Letter of Award for a 1,500 MW supply deal with Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd. added concrete revenue visibility. In addition, a Rs 2 billion greenfield thermal project announced in May further thickened the order book.
The confluence of these catalysts not only lifted Adani Power but also reverberated across the entire Adani ecosystem. Within the same session, Adani Total Gas surged nearly 20%, nudging its market cap above Rs 85,000 crore, while Adani Green Energy jumped more than 14%, pushing its valuation close to Rs 2 lakh crore. Combined, the listed Adani entities added roughly Rs 46,000 crore to their collective market capitalization, underscoring a broader shift in sentiment.
What the surge means for investors and the sector
Beyond the headline numbers, several deeper implications emerge from the rally.
First, the technical picture looks bullish. The stock now trades above all eight key simple moving averages—from the 5‑day to the 200‑day—signaling a sustained uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58, indicating neutral to mildly positive momentum, while the MACD remains above its centre line, suggesting that the underlying trend is still positive.
Second, the earnings snapshot, though mixed, is being viewed through a longer lens. In the March quarter, consolidated net profit fell 4% YoY to Rs 2,637 crore, primarily due to higher fuel costs. However, revenue grew 6.5% YoY to Rs 14,237 crore, showing that demand for electricity remains robust even as the company invests heavily in capacity expansion.
Third, the SEBI clearance has broader market ramifications. By dispelling the lingering doubts raised by the Hindenburg report, the regulator has effectively reset the risk premium associated with Adani stocks. This regulatory reprieve is likely to encourage other institutional investors who had stayed on the sidelines, further bolstering liquidity.
Fourth, the Morgan Stanley rating provides a seal of approval from a respected global player. The ‘overweight’ stance, coupled with a clear price target, sends a signal that the firm’s fundamentals—particularly its secured PPAs and strategic positioning under the SHAKTI power policy—outweigh any near‑term earnings volatility.
Finally, the expansion plan aligns with India’s broader energy trajectory. The country aims to add roughly 200 GW of power capacity by 2030, with a significant push for both renewable and efficient thermal generation. By positioning itself to capture a sizable share of that growth, Adadi Power not only stands to benefit financially but also plays a role in the nation’s energy security.
Investors should, however, keep an eye on a few risk factors. The heavy reliance on coal‑based generation exposes the company to potential policy shifts toward cleaner fuels and to volatility in coal prices. Additionally, the massive capital outlay required for the capacity upgrade will test the firm’s balance sheet and financing capability, especially if global interest rates remain elevated.
Nevertheless, the current market dynamics suggest that the upside potential remains significant. With the regulatory cloud lifted, institutional confidence rising, and a concrete pipeline of projects and PPAs, Adani Power appears poised to ride the wave of India’s expanding power demand. The stock’s recent performance reflects not just a short‑term bounce, but a deeper realignment of investor expectations around the company’s long‑term growth story.